Mobility Drives 7.6% PC Market Decline in 2013-Gartner Says

Gartner, Inc. has released device shipment estimates that predict the fading technological era marked by the use of conventional laptops and desktops. According to the analyst firm, from 2012 to 2017, the shipments of conventional desktop and notebook computers will plunge 21 percent, while smartphone sales will jump 25 percent and tablet sales will increase fourfold.

And in 2013, the traditional PC market is predicted by Gartner to fall by 7.6 percent, which is an indication of the long-term shift in user behavior and not just a passing trend resulting from the economic environment.

The widespread availability of affordable tablets and their improving functionalities hasten the shift from conventional PCs to tablets. "While there will be some individuals who retain both a personal PC and a tablet, especially those who use either or both for work and play, most will be satisfied with the experience they get from a tablet as their main computing device," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "As consumers shift their time away from their PC to tablets and smartphones, they will no longer see their PC as a device that they need to replace on a regular basis."

In 2013, worldwide tablet shipments are expected to reach 197 million, which represent a 69.8 percent upsurge from the 116 million shipments in 2012. "Lower prices, form factor variety, cloud update and consumers' addiction to apps will be the key drivers in the tablet market," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Growth in the tablet segment will not be limited to mature markets alone. Users in emerging markets who are looking for a companion to their mobile phone will increasingly choose a tablet as their first computing device and not a PC."

Smartphone sales outperform PCs by five to one. The robust growth in tablet sales adds to the predicted dip in PC sales. By 2017, the combined sales of smartphones and tablets will outsell PCs by 8 to 1.

According to Gartner, even ultrabooks (ultramobiles) cannot significantly stave off the weakening market for conventional PCs.

"The trend towards smartphones and tablets will have much wider implications than hardware displacement," Gartner's Milanesi remarked. "Software and chipset architecture are also impacted by this shift as consumers embrace apps and personal cloud."

The Gartner report, which systematically details the aforementioned market forecast data, is entitled "Forecast: Devices by Operating System and User Type, Worldwide, 2010-2017, 1Q13 Update."

Channelnomics' Larry Walsh wrote that the predicted worldwide decline in PC sales meant that the balance of power among the different technology vendors would shift considerably. The ones-like Acer, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard-that have relatively less presence in the mobility market will feel the brunt. Meanwhile, Apple and Samsung will continue to hold sway in the market for smartphones and tablets. And as Lenovo expands its global distribution beyond its home base in China, it will probably benefit in the declining PC market.

Walsh also said that the shift toward smartphones and tablets would affect how vendor relationships are formed and propagated by solution providers. The shift means that solution providers must not only build business ties with technology firms providing smartphones and tablets, they should also have ties with those offering "supporting applications and infrastructure for management and maintenance services."

Walsh went on to explain that solution providers gain from selling cloud services, mobile applications, and mobile device management. But this position to capitalize on the massive use of smartphones and tablets may be held back by the fragmented marketplace. In order to capitalize on mobile opportunities in the current marketplace, a solution provider usually has to partner with several vendors - a model that is both expensive and protracted.

According to Walsh, the channel is unprepared for the shift to smartphones and tablets. He noted that not too many smartphone vendors market their products and services through resellers. Many Android tablets are available through resellers. However, solution providers still have limited access to carrier services. AT&T and Verizon have modified their channel programs to incorporate the needs of conventional solution providers and system integrators. Walsh said that it is still not clear how those carriers intend to connect product sales with the usual data/voice transport services. (KOM) Link. Link.