Too Late is Often Wrong

Technology is now moving at a rapid pace which is great news for late bloomers. "It is too late" are four words I hear far too frequently. It's as if people actually believe the phrase, even though we keep witnessing it is rarely true. It is very rarely too late to make a significant impact to the market.

• Can Microsoft be successful with mobile? Yes.
• Can Nokia turn around? Yes.
• Can Google upset the UC space? Yes.
• Can Blackberry regain mobile leadership? Yes.

I am not saying the above statements will happen, but simply that they are all possible. And those who believe that it is too late are only fooling themselves. Each of those "emerging" vendors above have a few aces up their sleeves:

• Technology lifespans are short and getting shorter.
• Consumerization means that there are all kinds of end users (buyers) out there - more so than there are IT Managers.
• Times are crazy; incumbents mess-up easily and frequently.
• Loyalty is decreasing.

In the mid 90s, the cool kids had high-end Toshiba notebook computers running Windows 95 or 98. No one guessed that the cool kids in 2005 would be sporting Macs. It was too late for Apple; they lost the battle to PCs and would never amount to anything... other than being the most valuable company in the world and disrupting stalwarts like Microsoft, HP, and Dell. The point is things change quickly - often in unimaginable ways.

When Apple launched the iPhone, many agreed with Ballmer that it would fail. It was the most expensive cell phone ever - even after subsidies. It had no keyboard, something we knew business users loved. Apple had no experience with cell phones, and only offered it on one carrier. Yet it didn't fail. Instead, it disrupted all known rules - and knocked RIM and Microsoft off their cellular perches.

Then came Android - "It's too late," I heard from the cheap seats. It took Google about five years to effectively eliminate the gap between Android and the iPhone. During that time, Android phones built up leading market share, and are now outselling iphones five to one.

Now I keep hearing RIM can't recover - that it is too late. Yes, it took a long time, but the company honestly seems well positioned. It still has tons of users, relationships with carriers worldwide, and it understands the needs of IT management - something both Apple and Google delegate to third parties. They rebuilt their offering, and can easily support Android apps making an appstore alternative viable. It won't be easy, but they could regain their market leadership position.

I won't go as far as saying it's never too late - clearly that isn't accurate. But I will say that it ain't over until it's over. For some reason, we are quick to dismiss venerable brands that get themselves in trouble, yet bow to startups with just a hint of potential.